After focusing on the top half of the playoff bracket last week, it’s time to check in on a surprisingly spirited race for the eighth seed. With about two weeks left in the regular season, seven playoff teams are essentially set in stone, though the matchups aren’t yet set.
There is drama at the bottom of the postseason bracket. Chicago has been in a tailspin since the Olympic break, relinquishing what had been a comfortable lead over the lottery teams. The Sky have lost six in a row, suffering from the absence of Chennedy Carter (illness) and already without Marina Mabrey due to the pre-deadline trade. Chicago is still slotted into the No. 8 seed by virtue of a 2-1 head-to-head tiebreaker over Atlanta; however, a Sept. 17 showdown against the Dream looms charge. The Sky don’t have a true incentive to tank out of the playoffs because they don’t own their first-round pick, but they do have a swap with Dallas. If it seems like the Wings also will land outside the top eight, missing the postseason would ensure that Chicago at least gets a lottery pick, even if it’s not the best selection.
The Atlanta Dream (11-21) have now matched the Chicago Sky’s record! 😳 #WNBA pic.twitter.com/ei16oNr1V1
— I talk hoops 🏀 (@trendyhoopstars) September 2, 2024
Atlanta seems to be the betting favorite to make the postseason. The Dream have the fifth-best net rating in the league since the Olympic break and are tied in the standings with the Sky. They also got a gift in the form of Natasha Cloud’s suspension for technical fouls accumulation against the Mercury, improving the possibility of stealing a win in Phoenix to end their West Coast road trip. Atlanta also doesn’t own its first-round pick in the next draft, so it has every incentive to push toward the postseason.
A week ago, it seemed as if only two teams were in contention for this final playoff spot. But recent surges by the Dallas Wings and Washington Mystics added additional intrigue. Dallas had won three in a row — including back-to-back wins over Las Vegas and Minnesota — before succumbing to Indiana on Sunday. Even so, the Wings are only two games out of the final playoff seed spot, and their next three contests are against the Mystics, Dream and Sky, which gives Dallas a chance to make up ground quickly. The Wings also have the most talent among any team chasing the playoffs and the best chance of winning postseason games if they make it there.
Washington also sports a recent three-game winning streak and hasn’t really lost a step since trading away Myisha Hines-Allen. The Mystics have four games remaining against the other three teams in this field, and their recent play suggests they are probably closer to a .500 team than the one that started the season 0-12.
The race for eight isn’t nearly as consequential as how the top seeds shake out, considering most of these teams aren’t really capable of hanging with the New York Liberty in a three-game playoff series, there is always value in seeing how players respond to game pressure and higher stakes. Even if younger squads like the Sky and Mystics don’t advance to the playoffs, merely being in the chase is a useful experience. The games still matter.
Three standout performances
1. White T A’ja Wilson is absolutely terrifying
The two-time MVP and reigning two-time defensive player of the year has become additionally famous for her tunnel fits over the years, dazzling as much off the court as she does on it. But recently, Wilson has taken to a simpler approach, coming to games in a plain white T-shirt and sweats before changing into her Aces uniform. As she told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, “I have to want to put on clothes. Right now, where I am, I don’t feel like I deserve to put on (dressier) clothes.”
No matter what Wilson wears to a game, defenses have no prayer of stopping her. On Sunday against Phoenix — an opponent that boasts Brittney Griner but little other forward depth — Wilson scored 41 points on 16-of-23 shooting, adding 17 rebounds, one block and no turnovers in an 18-point road win. Wilson became the first player in WNBA history to post 40 points and 17 rebounds in a single game, and she tied Breanna Stewart and Diana Taurasi for the most 40-point games ever. As a reminder, Wilson is only 28.
Through 32 games this season, Wilson has 42 turnovers, which belies comprehension. She had to create more of her offense than usual to start the year without Chelsea Gray and still regularly navigates through double teams. She operates with a live dribble considering how often she faces up to score, instead of with her back to the basket. Turnovers should be the price of doing business for such a high-volume scorer (the highest in league history to date, if her average holds for the rest of the season), and she still leads the WNBA in turnover percentage (5.5), more than two percentage points better than second-place Kayla Thornton.
The Aces were 3-4 since the Olympic break (19-12 overall) when Wilson made that statement. That record may have made Wilson feel that she wasn’t performing to her standard — and why I argued last week that she wasn’t the no-brainer MVP — but it’s still worth acknowledging just how ridiculous her individual performances have been. No less an authority than Taurasi called Wilson’s season “unthinkable.” Already one of the game’s all-time greats, Wilson continues to get better.
“What she’s doing right now is unthinkable. … She’s just unguardable. You guys look at her as a post, I look at her as a guard.”
Diana Taurasi to @AlecCipollini about the Aces’ A’ja Wilson against the Mercury (41 points, 17 rebound) and her dominance in the WNBA this season. pic.twitter.com/6dshfeXf1F
— DANA (@iam_DanaScott) September 1, 2024
2. Satou Sabally’s 3-pointer is a difference-maker
The first thing that stood out when Sabally returned to the German national team was how comfortably she stepped into pull-up 3-pointers. The long ball has historically been the differentiator between good and great seasons for Sabally. When she shoots above 30 percent (which isn’t even league-average) from distance, she’s an All-Star.
Sabally is currently canning 48.8 percent of her triples, including nine during the Wings’ recent three-game winning streak. Dallas forces Sabally to the perimeter on offense more so than European teams because of the glut of frontcourt players on the Wings, but Sabally is making that a winning proposition. Even though she’s taken nearly as many midranger jumpers (23) as shots in the restricted area (24), her efficiency hasn’t wavered. Her effective field-goal percentage is a career-best 55.6 (though seven games, admittedly), and Dallas is back from the dead after a horrific start to the season.
Satou Sabally stuffed the stat sheet to lead the @DallasWings to victory!
🔥 28 PTS (10-14 FGM)
🔥 7 REB
🔥 5 AST
🔥 4 3PM
🔥 2 STLS pic.twitter.com/YBA6tH9e3I— NBA (@NBA) August 28, 2024
If anything, Sabally might be better served shifting more of her shot attempts beyond the arc. In the loss to Indiana, she made 4-of-9 3-pointers but only 2-of-7 2-pointers, as she shared the court the entire game with two other bigs. The Wings’ defense has still been terrible even though they have strung together a few wins, so they need to continue to put up high point totals. More 3s from Sabally, especially if she is shooting the ball this well, could be part of the recipe. It would also save the oft-injured star from taking a beating in the paint, since Dallas needs her on the court as much as possible to close out the regular season.
3. The best backcourt in the league?
The superlatives keep coming for Caitlin Clark, but her backcourt mate Kelsey Mitchell has been no less impressive during Indiana’s surge. Since the Olympic break, Mitchell is the WNBA’s second-leading scorer (she’s ninth for the full season), while shooting 50 percent overall, 40 percent on 3-pointers and 90 percent on free throws. Leave her for a second, as Sabally did when she and Arike Ogunbowale miscommunicated on a switch Sunday, and Mitchell will rise up with no hesitation. She and Clark have an easy chemistry on backdoor cuts as Mitchell is one of the fastest guards in the game, especially when her defender turns her head for a beat. Indiana’s transition attack has been effective with Mitchell running the floor and Clark hitting her with outlet passes.
THE FEVER ARE THE MOST FUN TEAM IN BASKETBALLpic.twitter.com/cRefDPsh4w
— whitney medworth (@its_whitney) September 1, 2024
Against Dallas, the pair combined for 64 points and 15 assists. To be fair, the Wings’ defense creates some inflated offensive totals, but the ease with which Mitchell and Clark created offense was something to behold.
It begs the question of whether the Fever already have the best backcourt in the WNBA. Neither Clark nor Mitchell is an ace defender, but that isn’t exactly necessary when they’re scoring at this rate. Perimeter players for New York and Las Vegas will have their say in the postseason, but for now, the fact that Clark and Mitchell already entered the discussion is a win for Indiana.
(As an aside, between Wilson and Mitchell, it’s been quite a moment for the 2018 draft class. Even beyond those top two picks, Gabby Williams, Jordin Canada, Hines-Allen, Ariel Atkins and Monique Billings could all play meaningful roles in the stretch run of the 2024 season).
Rookie of the week
Kamilla Cardoso, Chicago Sky
Cardoso had a bit of a lull, taking four shot attempts in each of the Sky’s losses against Washington and Indiana last week. She responded with the best game of her young career against Minnesota (albeit another loss). Part of the change was how she was used in the offense. The Sky generally throw the ball directly to Cardoso in the post; considering she’s 6-foot-7, runs the floor well, and works hard to seal her defender, it’s the most efficient way of getting Cardoso involved. However, it’s also predictable and allows defenses to bring help. Even a team like the Lynx that isn’t particularly tall inside can send a second defender to bother Cardoso at the rim.
What was fun about Cardoso’s performance against Minnesota was that she ran some pick-and-rolls with Lindsey Allen, and Allen delivered a couple of pinpoint pocket passes that gave Cardoso open looks inside. Chicago’s spacing isn’t always good enough to enable clean entry passes into the paint, but if Cardoso evacuates the lane to set a screen, that creates some daylight inside. Cardoso isn’t the most versatile big offensively, but she can definitely do more than catch lobs over the top. The Sky should be using these opportunities to expand her scoring skill set, especially with a roster that doesn’t have a ton of offensive pop.
Kamilla Cardoso continues to improve with each game ✅
The rookie posted a career-high 22 points and 9 rebounds in today’s loss vs. the Lynx!#WelcomeToTheW pic.twitter.com/e14joh3OQx
— WNBA (@WNBA) September 1, 2024
Game to circle
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty, 4 p.m. (ET) Sunday
This is the last regular-season meeting between the 2023 WNBA finalists, and thus the last chance for the Aces to prove that the Liberty haven’t passed them by. Getting swept during the regular season doesn’t mean Las Vegas can’t flip the script during the playoffs — for instance, in 2020, the Storm lost both regular-season games to the Aces but swept them in the finals. But another loss certainly wouldn’t be a good omen, especially with Las Vegas now at full strength.
(Photo of Angel Reese: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
