The Philadelphia Eagles already kicked off Week 11 full of high stakes, outlasting the Washington Commanders on Thursday night to seize control of the NFC East.
Now comes yet another date between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, a pair that could be considered division rivals if we didn’t know any better. They’re about to play for the eighth time since 2020, with three of those games in the postseason. Perhaps a fourth in their futures.
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers shouldn’t take a backseat to any NFL rivalry this week or ever. Once again, the game means something with first place in the AFC North at stake and a pesky three-game Steelers win streak Lamar Jackson and company would love to end.
Three of our NFL writers, Jeff Howe, Zak Keefer and Mike Sando, discuss what’s ahead.
Once again, the Steelers and Ravens are meeting in a high-stakes game. What’s been most impressive about Russell Wilson since assuming the starting role in Pittsburgh? Is the MVP award Lamar Jackson’s to lose at this point or is anyone else seriously challenging him?
Howe: The Steelers have been smart to accentuate Wilson’s strengths, and they’re continuing to lean on the ground game. Wilson has gotten into trouble in recent years when his offenses have been too pass-happy, so credit Arthur Smith for staying disciplined with his approach. Jackson has a sizeable lead in the MVP race, and I don’t see him relinquishing it as long as the Ravens keep winning. Otherwise, Josh Allen and Jared Goff could get back into the discussion.
Keefer: Credit Mike Tomlin, who pulled a winning quarterback off the field in Justin Fields — the Steelers were 4-2 with him starting — and made his team better by replacing him with Wilson. This Steelers team reminds me a bit of the old Seattle Seahawks squads: excellent defense, sound run game, smart quarterback who can occasionally take the top of the defense. Since Week 7, Wilson ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and seventh in passer rating. As good as the rest of this roster is, that’s more than enough. At this point, Jackson is leading the MVP conversation, but plenty will be decided as division titles and playoff seeds shake out. Still, it’s hard to argue with his consistent excellence: in 2024, Jackson has the highest passer rating through 10 weeks (123.2) of the past 25 years.
Sando: I’ve liked how Wilson has fit into the Steelers without any of the fanfare that went along with the Russell Wilson Show late in his Seattle tenure and into his time with the Denver Broncos. We aren’t hearing anything about his mansions or celebrity interactions or any other trappings of stardom.
Jackson is the runaway MVP favorite not just for his league-leading production but also for the context of that production. He’s overcoming especially poor play from the Ravens defense/special teams to win 70 percent of his starts. As detailed in my column Thursday, he is 3-1 in games when other regular starters have a 5-45 record this season (those when the defense/special teams finish with minus-10 combined EPA or worse). It’s remarkable.
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes meet once again as well. Bills-Chiefs always gives us a thriller. What or who makes the difference this time around?
Howe: If Allen isn’t the difference maker, I’m not sure we should expect anything to change a couple of months from now in the playoffs. The Chiefs defense has done more than its share to pick up the offense, but this is where Allen needs to assert himself. He has to be the most dominant player in the game. But even with that type of performance, Allen has won three consecutive regular-season matchups with the Chiefs, but he’s 0-3 against them in the playoffs. There’s still work to be done regardless of the outcome this weekend.
Keefer: The Bills are hurting at wide receiver, but the run game — plus Josh Allen’s brilliance — has carried them to 8-2, the second-best record in the conference, behind you-know-who. Buffalo is third in scoring despite Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman missing time, and tight end Dalton Kincaid is out Sunday. But I love how coordinator Joe Brady has leaned on the run game this season. James Cook has been excellent, and Ray Davis has been a spark off the bench. A win for Buffalo on Sunday could pay it back down the line: The Bills’ best chance at (finally) getting past the Chiefs in the playoffs has to come in Orchard Park. And I don’t believe Kansas City, even at 9-0, has the top seed — and home-field advantage — locked up just yet. This team could easily lose a couple down the stretch.
Sando: I’m picking a 23-21 Bills victory on a late field goal, on the thinking that the odds will catch up to Kansas City at some point after so many close games. The Bills have won the last three regular-season games between the teams. They have never lost the turnover battle to the Chiefs in seven meetings between the teams when Allen was in the lineup. If that trend continues, I’ll take Buffalo in a close game.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers take on Sunday night. Where is Jim Harbaugh in your Coach of the Year race? Why do the Bengals keep ending up on the wrong side of close games this year?
Howe: Dan Campbell should be in the lead because the Detroit Lions have been the best team and continue to play in their coach’s likeness. Mike Tomlin might not be far behind. But if the voters defer to the coach who most exceeded expectations, Dan Quinn and Jonathan Gannon will get a lot of recognition. Harbaugh has predictably left his imprint on the Chargers, doing a nice job with their physicality, discipline and quarterback. They are not going to be a welcome sight if they make the playoffs.
Keefer: Harbaugh has quietly done a terrific job, especially after the Chargers rehauled their skill position talent outside of quarterback Justin Herbert in the spring. But I’m with Jeff — no one’s done a better job this season than Dan Campbell, who’s coaching the most complete team in football. Quinn, Tomlin and Gannon also deserve consideration — as does Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota. For the Bengals, this franchise needs to re-evaluate what they’re trying to do on defense. Because that unit has substantially regressed from the team’s run to the Super Bowl after the 2021 season. If Cincinnati wants to help Joe Burrow, start there. Oh, and sign Ja’Marr Chase, too.
What if every one-possession NFL game had the opposite result? pic.twitter.com/wpj5Yk3bNR
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) November 13, 2024
Sando: I’m not certain of this, but research leads me to believe the Bengals have lost so many close games because, in addition to being poor on defense, they overly prioritize passing the ball, optimizing offensive play calling and saving time for their offense, at the expense of controlling games/clock in the late going. That seemed to be the case against Baltimore. It’s something I investigated when looking at how Burrow has performed in the clutch.
The Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers) and Las Vegas Raiders (at Miami Dolphins) have made changes to their offensive staffs. Expect any real difference or is the problem deeper with these teams?
Howe: The Raiders still don’t have a quarterback, so I don’t anticipate any substantial turnaround there. The Bears just need to get Caleb Williams to play within the offense and not get bogged down by making too many decisions, which has led to slower play, too much time in the pocket and a league high in sacks. A new play caller might provide the boost Williams needs, but the Bears’ issues extend beyond their rookie QB.
Keefer: I’m most curious to see what Thomas Brown does leading the Bears offense. Williams is undeniably talented, and they have weapons, but Chicago’s scheme has been so clunky this season, it feels like the rookie hasn’t had a chance to settle in. For Brown, that’s Job No. 1 — find some easy completions for Williams — much like Kliff Kingsbury does for Jayden Daniels in Washington — and let him tap into his talents when he needs to. The playoffs are an afterthought: The rest of this season in Chicago should be about giving Williams the best chance to improve heading into Year 2. As for the Raiders, they’re in quarterback purgatory. It’s time to take a swing high in the draft and find the next one. Otherwise, the cycle will just keep repeating.
Sando: The problems run much deeper than the coordinators, but the changes could help. The Raiders’ combination of Scott Turner with his father, Norv, provides a clear upgrade in experience and pedigree. In Chicago, it’s clear Shane Waldron wasn’t getting through to players. Perhaps players respond favorably to Brown’s taking control. I don’t know whether the trajectory will be upward beyond an initial bump, however.
Who has been more disappointing this season? The Houston Texans or the Dallas Cowboys?
Howe: I wouldn’t call the Texans a disappointment. They’re dealing with injuries at receiver, and the offensive line is getting exposed. There’s also got to be an adjustment period when a young team is expected to have success, rather than sneaking up on everyone like the Texans did last year. Their opponents are gearing up for the Texans as a measuring stick, and there’s a learning curve that comes with that. The Cowboys, though a regression was predictable, are closer to obtaining the No. 1 pick than the final wild-card spot. They’re up there with the New York Jets among the biggest disappointments in the league.
Keefer: The Texans are such an interesting team this season. Three quarters into Sunday night’s game, they were looking at 7-3 and a signature win over the best team in football, the Lions. Then Detroit staged its comeback. Something in Houston’s not right: the offensive line has been wildly inconsistent, and the passing game is feeling the effects of not having Nico Collins for the last month, plus Stefon Diggs is now out for the year. The good news for Houston: It’s in one of the worst divisions in football, and the AFC South is still eminently winnable, even with a mediocre record. The answer, though, is Dallas: How a 12-win team each of the past three seasons has fallen this far, this fast, is stunning.
Sando: The Cowboys are far more disappointing, except to the millions of professional Cowboys haters out there. Dallas has faltered at just about every turn and is seeded 13th in the NFC and on pace to win five to six games, far short of the Cowboys’ preseason Vegas win total (10), with no hope for making a playoff push now that Dak Prescott is injured. The Texans are leading their division and, at 6-4, are on pace to exceed their 9.5 preseason win total.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson and Cole Holcomb: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
