Alabama moved into position to receive an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff and Miami was locked out of contention as the selection committee’s penultimate rankings Tuesday night narrowed the field of contenders.
Miami fell six spots to No. 12 behind No. 11 Alabama, who holds the last at-large spot heading into championship weekend. Alabama’s in the bracket for now, but not assured of a spot. Championship games in the ACC and maybe even the Mountain West could still cost the Crimson Tide a bid to the first 12-team Playoff.
Selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said the committee will not re-order teams that do not play this weekend, putting all teams behind Alabama, including No. 13 Mississippi and No. 14 South Carolina, on the outside looking in.
“There’s nothing that’s going to change for us to evaluate them any different than we do now,” Manuel said on ESPN’s selection show.
Manuel added during a teleconference with reporters that teams not playing won’t be rewarded and penalized by the results of this weekend’s games. For example: A Clemson victory can’t give South Carolina, which beat the Tigers last week, an additional boost. Conversely, if Georgia were to lose the SEC championship game, it won’t be held against Alabama, which beat the Bulldogs.
“We know who has won games against teams that are in these championships,” Manuel said. “We’ve already taken that into account this week as we evaluated.”
Warde said Alabama being 3-1 against teams currently ranked and 6-1 against teams above .500 while Miami is 0-1 and 4-2 in those categories, respectively, gave the Crimson Tide an edge.
College Football Playoff Top 25
| Rank | Team | Record | Prev. |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
12-0 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
11-1 |
3 |
|
|
3 |
11-1 |
4 |
|
|
4 |
11-1 |
5 |
|
|
5 |
10-2 |
7 |
|
|
6 |
10-2 |
2 |
|
|
7 |
10-2 |
8 |
|
|
8 |
11-1 |
9 |
|
|
9 |
11-1 |
10 |
|
|
10 |
11-1 |
11 |
|
|
11 |
9-3 |
13 |
|
|
12 |
10-2 |
6 |
|
|
13 |
9-3 |
14 |
|
|
14 |
9-3 |
15 |
|
|
15 |
10-2 |
16 |
|
|
16 |
10-2 |
18 |
|
|
17 |
9-3 |
12 |
|
|
18 |
10-2 |
19 |
|
|
19 |
9-3 |
21 |
|
|
20 |
10-2 |
22 |
|
|
21 |
9-3 |
23 |
|
|
22 |
9-3 |
NR |
|
|
23 |
9-3 |
25 |
|
|
24 |
10-1 |
NR |
|
|
25 |
10-2 |
NR |
ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips said the conference was “incredibly shocked and disappointed” by Miami’s fall after the Hurricanes lost this past weekend, 42-38, at No. 22 Syracuse.
“Miami has more wins and fewer losses than the team directly ahead of them and a dominant victory over an SEC team (Florida) whose late-season surge includes wins over No. 13 Ole Miss,” Phillips said.
He also cited Miami’s losses to Syracuse and Georgia Tech were by a combined nine points on the road and that Georgia Tech just played an eight overtime game at No. 5 Georgia.
“Miami absolutely deserves better from the Committee,” Phillips said.
Just last year the ACC believed it was burned by the committee when unbeaten Florida State was bumped out of the four-team CFP by Alabama.
Oregon remained No. 1 in the committee’s penultimate Top 25, followed by No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 5 Georgia after Ohio State cleared out a spot in top-five.
The Buckeyes fell four spots, but stayed ahead of No. 7 Tennessee, which is significant because it could determine which team hosts a first-round playoff game between the Buckeyes (10-2) and Volunteers (10-2).
No. 8 SMU, No. 9 Indiana and No. 10 Boise State all moved up a spot. The Hoosiers (11-1) seem secure. The Mustangs (11-1) still have to play in the ACC championship game on Saturday against No. 17 Clemson (9-3). The winner should secure a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. Clemson is likely out with a loss.
SMU’s at-large hopes seem less clear, though ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips touted his Mustangs to The Athletic earlier this week, saying the first-year conference member should be in no matter how things go in Charlotte against Clemson.
“We are certainly pleased that SMU moved up in the rankings …” Phillips said Tuesday night.
The projected top four seeds from the latest rankings are now: Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.
Oregon (12-0) and Penn State (11-1) will meet Saturday in the Big Ten championship with a first-round bye and maybe the No. 1 overall seed on the line. Texas (11-1) and Georgia (10-2) face off in the SEC championship game, a rematch of the Bulldogs regular-season victory in Austin, with the winner getting a bye.
The intrigue lies in the ACC.
Clemson would be a bid-stealer, getting in as a conference champion. But whose bid would the Tigers take? Alabama’s? Or would SMU tumble behind the Crimson Tide in the final rankings and get squeezed out, leaving the ACC with only one team in the field and the SEC with four?
No. 15 Arizona State (10-2) and No. 16 Iowa State (10-2) play in the Big 12 championship game, with the winner assured of a spot reserved for the five highest-ranked conference champions and maybe a first-round bye depending on the result of the Mountain West title game between Boise State (11-1) and No. 20 UNLV (10-2), along with whether Clemson wins the ACC.
Miami coach Mario Cristobal was among the many publicly politicking for their teams over the past few days.
“I think that [SEC] bias is coming to an end.”
Mario Cristobal talks about how Miami’s résumé stacks to others in the CFP rankings 👀 pic.twitter.com/oAdp0LfbNw
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) December 3, 2024
Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin and South Carolina coach Shane Beamer also pushed their cases, as did Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne.
Here’s a good look at the numbers/rankings for @AlabamaFTBL. Recognize there’s lots of chatter out there about 2 vs. 3 loss teams, however that is just one factor. When you look at the @CFBPlayoff Principles for its Selection Committee, the first bullet point on the list of… pic.twitter.com/EGrp7pVbaA
— Greg Byrne (@Greg_Byrne) December 3, 2024
What three questions will be answered this weekend?
If UNLV upsets Boise State, could the Broncos, whose only loss is at Oregon by a last-second field goal, still secure an at-large bid and turn UNLV into a bid stealer?
How far will the SEC and Big Ten championship game losers fall and could it impact who hosts first-round games? The bracket you see now could still have significant movement. A loss by Penn State to Oregon could very well send the Nittany Lions tumbling behind Ohio State, which won at Happy Valley. A Georgia loss would be the Bulldogs’ third, but their victory against Tennessee could break their fall in the final rankings.
Could a Clemson victory hand a bye back to the Big 12 champion? It doesn’t look as if either Iowa State or Arizona State can catch Boise State. A UNLV upset might pave the way for one of those teams to earn a bye, though it should be noted that the Rebels have two victories against Big 12 teams (Kansas, Houston). But if Clemson does upset SMU, is it possible the Tigers would be the fifth highest-ranked champion, giving both the Big 12 and Mountain West champions top-four seeds?
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