There aren’t many ideal times to be desperate for a franchise quarterback, but the upcoming offseason is shaping up to be trickier than most in that regard.
The 2025 NFL Draft class is spotty, with a couple of team executives recently telling The Athletic there isn’t a quarterback coming out who’d be ranked ahead of the six first-rounders from 2024. That could shift the focus toward the veteran market, but that will also be a dicey proposition.
It’s somewhat easy to identify which teams will be chasing quarterbacks in the coming months. And since most of those teams can only daydream about the postseason, let’s get an early jump on the 2025 QB carousel.
Potentially available
Sam Darnold
The No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft has recharged his career this season with the Minnesota Vikings, showing he’s more than capable of leading a well-run system under coach Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage. And that’s why Darnold will likely be the prize of free agency.
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Still only 27, Darnold is just entering his prime, and he has experience with Kyle Shanahan and O’Connell, who has been Sean McVay’s most successful disciple. The Vikings just invested a first-round pick in J.J. McCarthy, who is missing his rookie season with a torn meniscus, so it would be tough to hand Darnold a long-term contract at this point. Could the franchise tag be on the table?
There aren’t any obvious fits for Darnold, but that could change if McVay proteges like Zac Robinson (Falcons) or Liam Coen (Buccaneers) land a head coaching job. Or if Rams QB Matthew Stafford decides to step away, Darnold would make a lot of sense with the Rams.
Darnold’s market will be fascinating. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him draw a contract somewhere between Kirk Cousins’ four-year, $180 million deal and Baker Mayfield’s three-year, $100 million pact.
Aaron Rodgers
Here we go again.
The Athletic recently surveyed three potential general manager candidates to see how they’d handle Rodgers if they took over the New York Jets. All three said they’d release Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation, assuming the 41-year-old doesn’t show marked improvement down the stretch.
Rodgers isn’t having a banner year by any means and comes with his own set of distractions, but suitors won’t need to stretch to think they can get a better year — or two? — out of the four-time MVP. He should eventually be fully recovered from his torn Achilles, which has undeniably hampered him this season, and the Jets’ circumstances weren’t conducive to success.
Put Rodgers in a more stable situation, perhaps in Pittsburgh, and he might be able to go out on a better note.
Russell Wilson
Speaking of the Steelers, Wilson has rewritten the narrative this season. While he’s long past his prime, the 36-year-old is producing his best season since 2020.
It’s a simple recipe with Wilson. Give him a quality running game, restrict the urge to get overly pass-happy, implement a menu of his favorite throws and let him manage the game. The Steelers, for their part, have executed this masterfully.
Wilson’s best bet might be to stick with the Steelers. If he continues to play well into the postseason, he could get a two-year deal worth somewhere between $50-60 million, somewhat comparable to recent deals for Tom Brady and Geno Smith.
Daniel Jones
The No. 6 pick in 2019 joined the Vikings practice squad this season after getting released by the Giants. There might be an opportunity for Jones to compete for a starting job if he joins a team with a rookie QB, but Jones could make himself more valuable by remaining in Minnesota for another season.
Jones would be McCarthy’s backup in that scenario, but it’s not a bad idea to reset for a season and learn from a head coach who clearly knows what he’s doing with his QBs. It worked for Darnold, who got a season with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan before thriving with the Vikings, and Jones should take that model to heart. Because if Jones joins a team with an unproven offensive system simply to find the clearest path to a starting gig, the ramifications will extend well beyond 2025 if he doesn’t play well.
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Justin Fields
The 2021 first-rounder played well enough through six starts that it was pretty surprising the Steelers benched him for Wilson.
Fields is still a plus runner, but he showed flashes as a passer this season with improved accuracy. Then again, the Steelers made the switch because they felt their offense’s potential was limited with Fields, and Wilson provided the jolt they’d been seeking. That may work against him in free agency.
Fields’ best bet might be to join a team with a rookie quarterback and try to win the job out of training camp. The Raiders or Giants might make some sense, depending on who’s coaching those teams next year.
Kirk Cousins
The 36-year-old was inconsistent in the first half of the season, which was understandable coming off the Achilles injury while acclimating to a new team. But after a five-game stretch with one win, one touchdown pass and nine interceptions, the Falcons benched Cousins for first-round pick Michael Penix Jr.
If Penix proves to be anywhere good enough to start in 2025, the Falcons will look to move Cousins, who has a no-trade clause. Cousins only has $27.5 million guaranteed in 2025, so the contract is manageable enough to deal away.
Cousins’ market would be fascinating. Will teams view this season as an outlier because of the Achilles recovery and buy low? Or will they stay away because this could be an indication of an irreversible regression due to his age?
If there are at least a couple of teams that believe Cousins is salvageable with a few good seasons in the tank, he could be the most sought-after QB on the market. Again.
Derek Carr
It’s probably a long shot to think the Saints would part with Carr. With so many uncertain options at QB this offseason, it’d be brazen to give up on a known commodity, even if the Carr-Saints combination hasn’t gone to plan over the past two seasons.
But there is one hypothetical scenario that makes sense. The Saints could choose to cut Carr, who only has $10 million guaranteed on his 2025 salary (plus another $30 million guaranteed tab coming in March), as part of a mission to rid the books of veteran deals.
And why would they do that? In part because New Orleans native Arch Manning is considered an early frontrunner to be a top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Jameis Winston
The No. 1 pick in 2015 gave the Cleveland Browns a desperately needed jolt of positivity during another lost season with Deshaun Watson, although Winston’s standing is more tenuous after getting benched for Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
It would seem to be worth trying to retain Winston for another season, but the same was said about Joe Flacco this time last year. If the Browns are again committed to being all in on Watson, who has two fully guaranteed years remaining, they might shed another quality backup.
Winston is great for any locker room. He’d be a solid signing for anyone in search of camp competition for a rookie.
Stopgap options
For teams looking to bolster their depth or to find a more affordable backup option than those listed above, they could turn toward Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Mac Jones or Jarrett Stidham.
If someone is looking to catch lightning in a bottle, Trey Lance and Zach Wilson also will be free agents. It’s unrealistic to think either would have an easy path to start, but a fortuitous combination of the right coach and system, enough talent around them and an injury to a starter could theoretically unlock their physical abilities.
Draft prospects
Miami’s Cam Ward has the early lead on the race for the draft’s QB1, while Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders will have his supporters among teams. Sanders will need to nail the interview process to solidify himself in the top two, according to a couple of NFL personnel evaluators.
From there, it could go in any number of directions. Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart are among the next wave in the class. They’ve gotten various degrees of buzz, but most look like they could fall to Days 2 and 3 of the draft. The beauty is in the eye of the beholder with this group, as there’s not much consensus yet on where they should be ranked.
One thing that’s come up a few times with teams: There might not be anyone in this class graded higher than the six first-round QBs from 2024. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any top-10 picks or that they can’t develop in good situations, but the class is shaping up to be even less of a sure thing than usual.
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Teams in need of a long-term fit
New York Jets
Prior to Rodgers this season, the Jets’ last five passing leaders were Geno Smith (2013-14), Ryan Fitzpatrick (2015-16), Josh McCown (2017), Darnold (2018-20) and Zach Wilson (2021-23). Smith and Darnold both beat the Jets this season, while McCown (Vikings QB coach) and Wilson (Broncos backup) were also victorious against their former team. (Fitzpatrick, for his part, was present for two of the Jets’ three wins this season while working the Thursday night broadcast.)
So yeah, the Jets were understandably desperate to pursue Rodgers in 2023. As they look for Rodgers’ replacement, either for next season or shortly thereafter, they should try to find someone who will win games for them rather than against them.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
After giving up on first-rounder Kenny Pickett, the Steelers handled the stopgap option to perfection with Fields and Russell Wilson, but they’ve still got to find a solution beyond this season. Both are free agents, though Wilson has proven himself to be a valuable asset in Arthur Smith’s offense and should be their offseason priority.
The Steelers could still go the draft route if someone they like is still on the board, whether it’s later in the first round or with a Friday selection. But that should be with more of a long-term vision. They’ve again shown this season their roster is capable of contending with the right quarterback in place, and the Steelers will likely be the most attractive team to the veterans on the market.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns could cut Watson and take on a massive financial hit, but that would signify a drastic philosophical shift. They could also try to keep Winston, but like Flacco a year earlier, the fan base’s approval rating would favor the backup in a landslide, therefore making life difficult on Watson and the coaching staff alike.
They should take a swing in the draft either way. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t been able to stick in limited opportunities, so they’ve got to ensure a younger QB is ready to take over once they move on from Watson.
Tennessee Titans
Will Levis had shown some improvement before his Sunday benching, but he hasn’t done enough for the Titans to assume he should be the starter in 2025. Brian Callahan is an offensive-minded head coach, so the Titans have to find him a capable starter to assess whether Callahan is also the right man for the job.
The Titans will have more than enough cap space to compete for any veteran on the market if they don’t have a premium draft pick. They have to be aggressive during an offseason that will be crucial for both their future at quarterback and with the regime in place. A mistake at QB could lead to even bigger changes a year from now.
Las Vegas Raiders
Aidan O’Connell has played decently enough at times, but the injuries are a concern. The Raiders appear to be a lock to go the draft route at the position, although they’ve been competitive enough that the fan base should be concerned about a win down the stretch that could knock them out of a top-two pick. Their next two games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints could shape the direction of the franchise for years to come.
New York Giants
Since 2019, when the Giants transitioned from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones, the Giants are second to last to the Chicago Bears in passing yards — and more than 1,000 yards behind 27 teams.
They struck out on QBs in the 2024 draft but have a great opportunity in April to land Ward or Sanders if they like either one. Otherwise, if the Giants make a shakeup at head coach, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to pair Darnold with a quality offensive-minded strategist.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints will decide by free agency whether Carr is the starter in 2025. Again, it probably makes the most sense to keep him because it’ll be tough to sell an incoming head coach on a TBD plan at QB.
Spencer Rattler might have done enough Sunday in relief to earn a longer look down the stretch while Carr recovers from a broken left hand. Regardless, the Saints won’t bet the long-term future of the position on a month’s worth of work.
The Saints would need divine intervention to get a top-two pick, so they might not be in a spot to use a first-rounder on a QB. Because of their cap constraints, it’d be tough to switch from Carr to another veteran, so they should use a relatively early pick on a quarterback before reassessing the plan in 2026.
Seattle Seahawks
Even with Geno Smith playing well, the Seahawks have been diligent with their draft prep in recent years, trying to find a long-term successor. They just haven’t been in a spot to find the right guy in the first round because they’ve been picking too late. However, it’s a testament to the front office that they haven’t forced anything in the draft.
Smith, 34, is under contract for one more season, so the Seahawks are coming up on an important time at the position. He’s only set to earn $15 million in 2025, which is a tremendous bargain for the team but a number Smith will probably push to increase, considering he’s been near the top of the league in passing yards all season.
Los Angeles Rams
Stafford turns 37 in February, so the Rams need to be diligent about finding his successor because retirement is always on the table for a player of that age.
If Stafford retires this offseason, the Rams should get involved in the veteran market, whether they attempt to trade for Cousins or sign Darnold. But they can’t ignore the draft, either.
League landscape
Big-money quarterbacks under contract
• Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
• Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
• New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers
• Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
• Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow
• Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
• Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
• Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
• Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
• Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
• Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
• Detroit Lions: Jared Goff
• Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love
• Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
• New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr
• Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith
• Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray
• Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford
Potential franchise QBs on rookie contracts
• New England Patriots: Drake Maye
• Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud
• Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson
• Tennessee Titans: Will Levis
• Denver Broncos: Bo Nix
• Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels
• Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy
• Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams
• Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.
• Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
• San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy
(Photo illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos: of Shedeur Sanders, Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers: Aaron M. Sprecher, Stephen Maturen and Megan Briggs / Getty Images)
