This is the fourth entry in a five-part series about the state of the New York Giants. Within “Giants 2025,” we will examine the talent on the roster, the team’s positions of need, their pathways to improvement, the players they could target in the offseason and finally, the people charged with restoring this franchise to its former glory.
As the New York Giants pondered taking a quarterback in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft, the team’s brass reviewed the spotty recent history of top picks at the position in a “Hard Knocks” scene. As coach Brian Daboll rattled through the list of first-round busts over the past 10 years, general manager Joe Schoen asked for the takeaway from the review.
“Take a (C.J.) Stroud,” Daboll replied dryly about the Texans quarterback named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year after being the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft.
If only it was that simple. As the Giants prepare to dive into the quarterback pool of the 2025 NFL Draft, they’ll do so fully aware there are no assurances whoever they pick will have a Stroud-like effect on their franchise. Recent history shows it’s rare for a rookie quarterback to engineer a turnaround like Stroud in Houston or 2024 No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels this season in Washington.
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The reason for that is obvious: Top picks generally go to bad teams. So, no matter the rookie quarterback’s talent, it’s a tall task to single-handedly transform a doormat into a contender overnight.
That point is further emphasized by the top picks, like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, who were dumped by their first team only to find success elsewhere later in their careers. Those cases reinforce the importance of the external factors around a young quarterback.
The Giants are on track to land the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. That will allow them to choose between Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and
Part I: How many building blocks can one of the league’s worst rosters actually have?
Part II: Salary cap shouldn’t stand in way of improvement; NY has money to spend
Part III: Free-agent targets include bridge QB, help for Dexter Lawrence, true No. 1 CB
Coaching staff
No one formula guarantees success for a rookie quarterback. But some important ingredients typically help a young QB thrive.
The offensive coaching staff might be the most important element. Daniels has excelled under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who was the Cardinals’ head coach when 2019 No. 1 pick Kyler Murray won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
“It always looks like Jayden has an answer no matter what you do,” NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger told The Athletic. “If you go blitz-zero on him, he knows where he wants to go with the ball. He’s an elite athlete. He can escape, and he can rescue some plays. But I feel like built into the offense, they always have a check-down some place where he can just get the ball out of his hands and get the ball to a receiver — maybe break a tackle, maybe pick up a first down — but at least get a completion where you can build confidence in your player.”
Meanwhile, dysfunctional coaching situations and suspect schemes have derailed elite prospects like 2021 No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville and 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams in Chicago as rookies.
“(The Bears) fired the offensive coordinator first, then they elevated the quarterbacks coach to be the offensive coordinator, so now he has that,” Baldinger said. “Then they fired the head coach and elevated the offensive coordinator now to head coach. Now he’s splitting his duties between coaching Caleb, which he was doing full time, to now he’s got to coach the whole team. So that’s a disaster.”
It’s tricky to forecast the Giants’ coaching situation. Daboll oversaw the development of Josh Allen from a raw prospect to an MVP-caliber quarterback after getting picked No. 7 by the Bills in 2018.
Daboll’s track record with Allen was a major selling point when he was hired by the Giants in 2022. But the Giants haven’t drafted a quarterback in Daboll’s three years on the job. Some initial success with 2019 first-round pick Daniel Jones deteriorated rapidly. Now, Daboll may not be around to mentor Sanders or Ward because of how catastrophically the Giants have failed in the past two seasons.
“I feel like Brian has concepts that are good that can work,” Baldinger said. “I feel like if you gave him really good pieces, I think he could be a good game planner and build a good offense around (a rookie QB).”
Moving on from Daboll and Schoen would provide a complete reset, allowing the three most important individuals in the organization to be on the same timeline as they are in Washington. That would avoid the current mess in Chicago, where Williams will have a third head coach and a GM on the hot seat to start his second season.
If the Giants fire Daboll, they need to prioritize hiring the best head coach to lead the entire team. But there’s an obvious appeal to landing a coach with an offensive background as they prepare to shepherd in a new quarterback. Because if a defensive-minded coach hires an offensive coordinator, that assistant will become a coveted head-coaching candidate if he has success developing the Giants’ quarterback. Washington could face that problem as Kingsbury rebuilds his profile through Daniels’ success.
“If he’s proven to be good, you’re going to lose him,” Baldinger said. “Now you’re changing coordinators, and you’re changing the offense for that guy. I feel like a young quarterback needs an offensive coordinator head coach.”
Supporting cast
The supporting cast is another key component to helping a young quarterback succeed. Drake Maye has flashed the potential that made him the third pick in this year’s draft, but the results have been lackluster due to the Patriots’ dearth of offensive talent.
A new Giants quarterback will inherit some talent at the skill positions, headlined by Malik Nabers, who looks like a No. 1 wide receiver after an impressive rookie season. Rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. has also shown promise. But the playmakers could use an upgrade to better support a rookie quarterback.
“I like Tyrone Tracy a lot. I think he’s good,” Baldinger said. “It doesn’t look like (Darius) Slayton will come back. I don’t know what they’re doing with Jalin Hyatt. I thought Hyatt had some ability. But you’re basically looking at a decent slot receiver (Wan’Dale Robinson) and then Malik. I think (tight end) Theo Johnson can be OK.”
Perhaps more important to a young quarterback’s success than his weapons is his protection. Armed with the most cap space in the NFL, the Commanders overhauled their offensive line this offseason. They signed center Tyler Biadasz and left guard Nick Allegretti while adding left tackle Brandon Coleman in the third round of the draft.
The Giants’ offensive line progressed from historically bad to functional this season. That’s a step in the right direction, but only left tackle Andrew Thomas, who has an increasingly concerning injury history, is a top-tier lineman.
The Giants figure to run it back with veterans Jon Runyan at left guard and Jermaine Eluemunor at right tackle, with 2023 second-round pick John Michael Schmitz at center. That’s a serviceable core, but there aren’t any Pro Bowlers in that group. Right guard is a weakness that needs to be addressed this offseason.
“I would invest, maybe not a first-round pick, in getting a really good player on the offensive line. Maybe you look in free agency,” Baldinger said. “They’ve had injuries every year. I would make sure I’m at least seven-deep with veteran players.”
There are other factors, like having strong leadership and a quality defense, that are valuable complements to a young quarterback. The Giants’ leadership void has been exposed this season after losing some of their most respected voices in the locker room. Adding a veteran like the Commanders did with future Hall of Fame linebacker Bobby Wagner would be beneficial.
The Giants’ defense hasn’t been a disaster this season, but it’s not a formidable unit. More upgrades will be needed on that side of the ball to relieve some pressure from a young quarterback.
Schoen’s sales pitch to ownership undoubtedly will be that the team is a quarterback away from contending. And that if the right quarterback is plugged in, they can take off like the Commanders did with Daniels this season.
But that type of success is rare. A review of first-round quarterbacks picked by teams with four or fewer wins in the past 10 drafts shows it’s uncommon to see immediate team success.
No quick fix
| QB | Year | Pick No. | Team | Previous record | Rookie record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2024 |
2 |
Commanders |
4-13 |
10-5 |
|
|
2024 |
3 |
Patriots |
4-13 |
2-8 (3-12) |
|
|
2023 |
2 |
Texans |
3-13 |
9-6 (10-7) |
|
|
2023 |
4 |
Colts |
4-12 |
2-2 (9-8) |
|
|
2021 |
1 |
Jaguars |
1-15 |
3-14 |
|
|
2021 |
2 |
Jets |
2-14 |
3-10 (4-13) |
|
|
2020 |
1 |
Bengals |
2-14 |
2-7-1 (4-11-1) |
|
|
2019 |
1 |
Cardinals |
3-13 |
5-10-1 |
|
|
2018 |
1 |
Browns |
0-16 |
6-7 (7-8-1) |
|
|
2017 |
2 |
Bears |
3-13 |
4-8 (5-11) |
|
|
2015 |
1 |
Buccaneers |
2-14 |
6-10 |
|
|
2015 |
2 |
Titans |
2-14 |
3-9 (3-13) |
(This table doesn’t include teams that traded up to the top of the draft since they weren’t in the same situation as the Giants in the previous season. The team’s overall season record is in parenthesis when a quarterback didn’t start every game as a rookie.)
The Giants can only dream about drafting a quarterback as good as Joe Burrow. But not even the NFL’s current passing leader was able to turn around the moribund Bengals immediately. Burrow went 2-7-1 in 10 starts before tearing his ACL during his rookie season in 2020. He led the Bengals to a 10-6 record and a trip to the Super Bowl in his second season after the team added All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the first round of the 2021 draft and star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson in free agency during the 2021 offseason.
Obviously, the goal is to land a quarterback who can perform at the level of Burrow for the next decade. But this exercise is designed to examine how well the Giants are positioned to facilitate an instant turnaround with a rookie quarterback.
It’s impossible to project how NFL-ready Sanders or Ward are at this point, so we can only evaluate the situation they’ll be joining. The Giants have some pieces in place to facilitate a rookie quarterback’s success, but there are some big questions — most notably with the coaching staff — that need to be addressed.
(Photo illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos of Andrew Thomas, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers and Joe Schoen: Cooper Neill, Luke Hales, Todd Kirkland and Bryan Bennett / Getty Images)
