As a presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump promised an economic “boom like no other.”
But eight weeks into his presidency, Mr. Trump is refusing to rule out a recession — a striking change in tone and message for a man who rode widespread economic dissatisfaction to the White House by promising to “make America affordable again.”
His comments come as the stock market is tumbling — the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent Monday after falling 3.1 percent last week — and business leaders are spooked about the uncertainty over his tariffs. Even some Republicans, who fear retribution if they cross Mr. Trump, have started to raise concerns about his levies.
The moment captures a fundamental challenge for Mr. Trump, a showman who makes absolute and sweeping promises that inevitably run into the reality of governing.
The economy Mr. Trump inherited was by many standards in solid shape, with low unemployment, moderate growth and an inflation rate that, while still higher than what the Federal Reserve wants, had declined substantially. But the uncertainty that his policies have injected into the outlook is a jarring contrast with the picture Mr. Trump painted on the campaign trail.
“We will begin a new era of soaring incomes,” Mr. Trump said at a rally in October. “Skyrocketing wealth. Millions and millions of new jobs and a booming middle class. We are going to boom like we’ve never boomed before.”
That vow to create an economic boom has come into conflict, at least for now, with the president’s favorite economic tool: tariffs. He promised those too during the campaign and, as economists warned, they are the primary driver of the country’s cloudy economic outlook. Forecasts from both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs say a recession over the next year has become more likely because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
So far, the president appears to be trying to lower expectations. In an interview that aired Sunday on Fox News, Mr. Trump demurred when asked by Maria Bartiromo if he expected a recession this year.
“I hate to predict things like that,” he said. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
In his speech last week to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Trump acknowledged that tariffs would cause “a little disturbance.” But he said: “We are OK with that. It won’t be much.”
Even as markets sink, world leaders revolt and business leaders speak out, Mr. Trump has made clear he has no plans to shift his tariff strategy. He imposed broad tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China last week and has vowed to move ahead with more next month. But Mr. Trump, who has a penchant for changing positions on a whim, already reversed course on some of the tariffs and could do so again.
“Look, our country has been ripped off for many decades, for many, many decades, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore,” Mr. Trump said on Fox News.
Mr. Trump, who rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange in December, closely monitors the stock market. In his first term, he regularly pointed to a prosperous stock market as evidence of his success. Many business leaders rallied behind Mr. Trump’s campaign because of their belief that he would prioritize their economic interests, but now some chief executives and small-business owners are complaining about the economic pain his tariffs will bring. The president may hear those concerns directly from top chief executives when he meets with members of the Business Roundtable on Tuesday.
On Monday, as the stock market had its worst day since December, White House officials sought to redirect the conversation.
“Since President Trump was elected, industry leaders have responded to President Trump’s America First economic agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and the unleashing of American energy with trillions in investment commitments that will create thousands of new jobs,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in a statement. “President Trump delivered historic job, wage, and investment growth in his first term, and is set to do so again in his second term.”
In recent days, Mr. Trump’s top advisers have tried to reassure the markets and business leaders. Howard Lutnick, the voluble commerce secretary, said Sunday that there was “no chance” of a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, was not as adamant, saying Friday that there would be a “natural adjustment” as the economy goes through a “detox period” of relying on government spending.
“The full-court press by the president and his surrogates this weekend signals they are under a great deal of pressure from people they listen to — the stock market, Republican lawmakers, and business leaders,” said Kate Kalutkiewicz, the senior managing director at McLarty Associates, an advisory firm.
Ms. Kalutkiewicz, who worked on the National Economic Council in the first Trump term, said the comments by the president and his aides suggest they don’t plan to change course in response to the growing chorus of concern.
Stephen Moore, an economist at the Heritage Foundation who is a former economic adviser to Mr. Trump, said the issue for the president is the timing. Mr. Moore said Mr. Trump should have waited until Congress passed tax cuts to institute tariffs.
“First, let’s get the economy booming again and then let’s talk about tariffs,” he said. “I think there needs to be a bit of a priority shift.”
Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat who is the ranking member on the Senate Finance Committee, said the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs is “poison” for the U.S. economy.
“The chaos they create every single day is basically an anchor tied to the American economy, and it’s going to drag more and more of our workers under water the longer this goes on,” he said in an interview. “We’re trying to stop them.
The question hanging over Washington is how long Mr. Trump can stomach a declining stock market — and the ensuing negative media coverage that accompanies it.
“I don’t know,” Mr. Moore said. “It’s a good question. I’m sure the president is concerned about the losses in the stock market over the last 10 days. We all are.”
