While the Trump administration has drastically changed how it talks about the danger posed by Russia, American intelligence agencies said in an annual report on Tuesday that Russia remained an “enduring potential threat to U.S. power, presence and global interests.”
On the same day the report was released, the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee, described Russia as a “formidable competitor” but avoided calling Moscow an adversary.
The intelligence report — an annual assessment by federal agencies of global threats — found that Russia has the upper hand in its three-year-old full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has greater leverage now to press Kyiv and its supporters to negotiate “an end to the war that grants Moscow concessions it seeks.”
The report was not overly optimistic about the Trump administration’s efforts to push for a quick cease-fire to end the war, even though President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine understands his position is weakening as his army’s battlefield position erodes, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia knows the damage an extended conflict would do to his economy.
Still, it said, “both leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement.”
“For Russia, positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity,” the report said.
The report said Mr. Putin’s hold on power was extremely strong. The possibility of an alternative leader emerging “probably is less likely now than at any point in his quarter-century rule.”
While U.S. officials frequently talk about how much American military experts have learned from the war, the intelligence report said Moscow has also learned a huge amount about American capabilities, since the United States has armed Ukraine and has provided it with battlefield intelligence.
“The war in Ukraine has afforded Moscow a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale war,” the report said. “This experience probably will challenge future U.S. defense planning, including against other adversaries with whom Moscow is sharing those lessons learned.”
