Aaron Judge left money on the table to stay in New York long-term. The Yankees won’t get as lucky with Juan Soto, even if they win the World Series.
Sure, Soto is an unquestionable competitor who will want to go somewhere he consistently has a chance to play in October. The pending free agent was just 20 years old when the Washington Nationals won the World Series in 2019. He still calls that team “a family” and for years after — even when the Nationals traded him away — Soto had that family and their trophy as his cell phone’s screen saver.
In San Diego, despite struggling at times, Soto was identified by numerous people in the organization as the rare star who truly cared more about winning than individual numbers. Losses bothered him equally when he was 0-for-4 or 4-for-4, though going hitless often led to hours in the cage. That was a habit he picked up while still in Washington; Soto spent one October night in D.C.’s batting cages with former hitting coach Kevin Long, working until well past midnight to get out of a slump, only to later emerge as a Nationals playoff hero.
Soto doesn’t just relish the game’s biggest moments, he feeds off them, as evidenced by his 10th-inning home run late Saturday night that sent the Yankees past the Cleveland Guardians and clinched New York’s first World Series appearance since 2009.
It would be foolish to think winning it all wouldn’t matter to a player like Soto, who is expected to sign a mega-contract this winter that could lock him up for the next decade or more. But records matter, too.
Multiple people told The Athletic this spring they believe Soto’s camp is after Shohei Ohtani’s record-breaking deal. Ohtani’s contract included 97 percent deferrals, but still put his present-day average annual value at roughly $43.78 million, or closer to $46 million when calculated for luxury tax purposes.
Soto, making $31 million in his final arbitration year, could easily eclipse both those numbers and set a new record, though Ohtani’s overall number of $700 million still seems like a pipe dream unless Soto is willing to accept heavy deferrals. (It’s worth noting that it’s not unheard of for Scott Boras clients to accept heavy deferrals. Soto’s former teammate Max Scherzer signed a seven-year, $210 million deal before the 2015 season that had record deferrals at the time.)
Soto, who will turn 26 on Friday, was widely thought before the season to be seeking offers starting at around $500 million. Fresh off a regular season in which Soto posted an 8.1 fWAR — trailing only Judge, Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr. — it wouldn’t be a surprise if Soto’s youth and playoff performance push him closer to $600 million.
Boras, coming off a disappointing offseason for some of his top clients, shouldn’t have a problem getting Soto — who has drawn Ted Williams comparisons — every penny he deserves. But any notion that the Yankees winning the World Series would give them a significant leg up on re-signing superstar Soto seems wishful at best.
Juan Soto chats with Francisco Lindor of the New York Mets, another team that could be interested in Soto. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
Trophies are nice, but Soto — who turned down $440 million from the Nationals before he was traded in 2022 — has often spoken about advancing the market and pushing things forward for the next group of players. That’s not exactly the mindset that signifies a willingness to leave tens of millions on the table, like Judge did in turning down the San Diego Padres.
In finally getting to pick his team, Soto isn’t signing up to lose for the foreseeable future — I don’t think the Miami Marlins or Chicago White Sox could pay him enough, even if both very unlikely suitors decided to. But the other team expected to be a major player for Soto, the Steve Cohen-owned New York Mets? Well, they just had a heck of a run, finishing two wins shy of playing the Yankees.
Soto loves New York; he has family in the area and his parents can easily fly from the Dominican Republic to stay with him. If it truly is a two-team race for Soto’s services — and with him preferring the East Coast and the big money involved, it very well could be — it’s tough to imagine a scenario where a few more October wins play a tangible role in distinguishing the Yankees from the Mets.
Cohen is the richest owner in the sport, unafraid to storm through luxury tax layers. Should Cohen decide he has to have Soto, convincing him and Boras that the Mets are on the upswing shouldn’t be hard. Under president David Stearns, the organization is expected to undergo significant internal changes, replacing and restructuring more than 20 positions in his second full season at the helm. Stearns and rookie manager Carlos Mendoza squeezed the most out of the roster and the Mets rode a wild-card berth — clinched a day after the regular season was supposed to end — to the NL Championship series.
On neither New York team will Soto immediately become the team’s star; both Francisco Lindor and Judge are signed with their respective teams until 2032. Though if being the face of an organization is important to Soto, Lindor doesn’t get nearly the national spotlight or attention Judge commands.
The Yankees went all-in on trading for one year of Soto and they’re four wins away from having that bet pay off handsomely. But to keep him in pinstripes beyond 2024 will require one thing: record money. Any other talk is exactly that.
(Top photo: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
