NHL predictions 2.0: New Stanley Cup favorite, surprise Hart Trophy front-runner and more

How much could have changed in a month?

Ask the Edmonton Oilers. When The Athletic polled its NHL staff for 2024-25 predictions in the preseason, Connor McDavid was the prohibitive favorite for the Hart Trophy, and his team was the front-runner to win the Stanley Cup.

Now? Well, the Oilers are the top pick in another category, but it’s not a good one. A new team takes the top spot for who we think will win it all, and another Western Conference superstar — who didn’t get any votes in the preseason — is our Hart Trophy pick.

What else has changed? This week, we polled staffers on the same set of questions we asked in the preseason. Here’s how our expectations for 2024-25 have already evolved, with expert analysis and critique from senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.

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Who will win the Stanley Cup?

Goldman: The Stars are the quietly effective, balanced team of all of our dreams. It’s no surprise to see them at the top here — especially after the Oilers have gotten off to another iffy start. It’s not as dramatic or dire as last year, but they aren’t inspiring a ton of confidence yet.

Granger: I personally chose the Rangers, but it’s hard to argue with any of the top three picks here. The Stars are as complete of a team as there is in the league right now, and the Rangers and Panthers look like they’re in their own tier in the East, at least early.

Gentille: I rarely bail on my preseason Cup picks period, let alone after a month, but I’m concerned enough with Stuart Skinner to deviate from protocol. Hello, Dallas.

Mirtle: I have company with the ‘Canes now! A 10-2-0 start, offensive explosion (more than four goals per game) and Martin Nečas arriving certainly help embiggen their case.

THIS MAN CAN’T BE STOPPED!!! pic.twitter.com/EZW21YE58t

— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) November 6, 2024

Who will be the runners-up?

Goldman: Apparently it’s win or bust for the Hurricanes and Panthers! I went with the Lightning here, who look a lot stronger than the last couple of seasons. With a pair of seconds and fourths in the 2025 draft, management should be able to address their depth — as long as they don’t spend all their picks on a player like, I don’t know, Tanner Jeannot.

Granger: It’s interesting to see how little the faith in Edmonton has wavered after the 6-7-1 start, both in this poll and in the betting odds. The Oilers are still the favorites to win the Cup at +700 despite currently sitting in fifth place in the Pacific Division standings with the third-fewest goals scored per 60 minutes.

Gentille: Yeah, I’m sticking with the Rangers here. They’ve got an elite goaltender in Igor Shesterkin, a Hart candidate in Artemi Panarin and enough five-on-five substance to keep me on the train.

Mirtle: No one be-Leafs anymore, after a tepid eight wins in 15 games start. (I don’t blame them.) I went with the Jets here, as with Connor Hellebuyck this dialed in, they could have a nice run.

Who will finish in last place?

Goldman: The Sharks, even without Macklin Celebrini, have had some interesting games lately … but we all know where their season is going. The big difference between them and the Ducks? Lukáš Dostál.

Granger: I thought the Sharks would be significantly better this season, and so far that’s proven to be very wrong. They obviously don’t have the talent to compete with the best teams, but they also sit back so passively on defense, letting teams pass the puck around the outside almost as if they’re on a power play for the majority of the game.

Gentille: San Jose needs to call up Yaroslav Askarov (.950 save percentage in his first six AHL games) to make this one interesting.

Mirtle: The Habs might make this one interesting if they keep playing this way defensively. Two wins in their last 11 games doesn’t look like a blip.

Who will be the biggest disappointment?

Must be projected at 100-plus points by Dom Luszczyszyn’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.

Granger: The top three teams are all in this spot thanks to subpar goaltending. The difference between the three is that Alexandar Georgiev and Skinner have long enough track records for me to believe they’ll eventually regress back to being league-average goalies. Meanwhile, it’s looking less likely Thatcher Demko is stepping through that door to save the Canucks, so I’m most worried about Vancouver.

Mirtle: No love for Kevin Lankinen! He’s been excellent, and the Canucks’ underlying numbers are solid. Their backup is hurting them (.797 save percentage for Artūrs Šilovs), but with Demko joining the main group at practice this week, they could be fine?

Granger: You might be right. Maybe I’m not giving Lankinen enough credit. He was excellent against the Kings on Thursday, and his numbers are great. I’m still a bit skeptical that will continue for an entire season, but if Demko returns soon it’ll change my mind in a hurry.

Gentille: Carolina is currently playing at a 137-point pace. Whoops!

Goldman: The Oilers bounced back from worse last year, so maybe that’s why I am not super worried there. Maybe the Maple Leafs should be higher. Or we all expect them to disappoint us, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if it happened.

Who’s your dark horse Cup contender?

Must be projected as a middle-of-the-pack team, between 85 and 100 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.

Goldman: The Wild and Capitals have gotten off to better-than-expected starts, which makes them dark-horse playoff teams. But contenders? I don’t think anyone sees them standing in the final four in the spring. That’s what separates them from the Jets, Devils, Lightning and Golden Knights.

Granger: I’m still alone on the Senators bandwagon, but I’m still comfortable despite the middling start. Ottawa is scoring at a good pace, and the goaltending has been better than the numbers suggest. They’re not as good as Tampa Bay or Vegas, but I find it hard to consider them dark horses.

Gentille: The Lightning are a bit of a riser here, which makes sense. They’re getting secondary production from their forwards, and that was a huge issue for them last season.

Mirtle: Sticking with Vegas. They’re riding a shooting percentage bender, sure, but offense sure doesn’t look like it’ll be the issue some thought it was this season. Pavel Dorofeyev has arrived.

Pav got us going!!! 🚪 pic.twitter.com/G1kdbFZagh

— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 3, 2024

Who’s your surprise playoff team?

Must be projected below 85 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.

Granger: The Flames are playing some fun, high-event hockey, and both Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar are off to good starts in net. More than anything, I just think the Pacific Division is the easiest to earn a playoff spot in.

Gentille: Ideally, we could’ve left this one blank, but I can see the Blues making a run once Robert Thomas is back in the lineup.

Mirtle: Yeah, this really feels like none of the above at this point. Good for Columbus, though; finally feels like they’re building something interesting there. They’ve been fun to watch.

Goldman: The door should be open for Detroit here with the Islanders, Penguins and Bruins all going through it, but … nope, the vibes are simply off there as well.

Who will be the first coach fired?

Goldman: There is a good case to make for any of the top three names here. Mike Sullivan would be purely for a change of direction. A team with Derek Lalonde at the helm shouldn’t be this bad defensively. But I personally went with Jim Montgomery. The Bruins look lost in the early goings of the season and are seeing their playoff chances trend down by the day at this point.

Gentille: Gotta say, I did not expect to see Montgomery challenging for the crown here. I still think it’s Lalonde, though. If Detroit’s power play goes cold for a protracted amount of time, things are gonna get ugly in a hurry.

Mirtle: I second Montgomery. It’s not so much Boston’s record, which isn’t great. They’ve been as bad defensively as we’ve seen in … 20 years? And even David Pastrňák looks out of sorts now.

East playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight East playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team. 

(*-playoff team in 2023-24)

Granger: There seems to be a pretty clear cutoff after the top eight teams, both in these poll results and the betting odds. Boston is still a -135 favorite to make the playoffs despite the slow start, while the next-closest team (Ottawa) is a slight +110 underdog to make it.

Gentille: Eight-for-eight thus far. End the season immediately.

Mirtle: One vote for Ottawa for me. They’ve looked really good lately and managed to nab some points when Linus Ullmark was out of the lineup. Maybe ease up on those Travis Hamonic minutes a bit, though, Mendes.

Goldman: The East feels somewhat decided besides that eighth seed. Boring!

West playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight West playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team. 

(*-playoff team in 2023-24)

Granger: What a fall for Nashville, from 92.9 percent to 32.3 percent in only a month of hockey. The Predators are still favorites to make the playoffs according to the oddsmakers, though.

Gentille: I love what the Kings are doing. They’re a top-10 five-on-five team, and that bodes well for them snagging one of the wild cards, especially given how lost Nashville has looked.

Mirtle: The rise of the Wild could make the West race pretty dull. I have a hard time seeing any of the bottom seven get in at this point. Prove me wrong, Utahns!

Goldman: Time to cancel another trip to Sphere or something to get Nashville back in this race. Utah had a lot of momentum early on and wow, did it fade quickly.

Hart Trophy

Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).

Gentille: It’s worth noting that we voted while Connor McDavid was on the shelf, and he wound up missing a grand total of three games. At 6.5 percent, he came in a little light.

Mirtle: Kirill Kaprizov is a fine choice, but I think we’re chasing the shiny new toy here a bit. Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon have been amazing lately and are going to make this one interesting, I think.

Goldman: No disagreements with Kaprizov and Kucherov leading the way, but goalies (and Shesterkin, specifically) should be in the conversation more often.

Get yourself a glass 🥛 pic.twitter.com/W0QrBuHni4

— Minnesota Wild (@mnwild) November 9, 2024

Rocket Richard Trophy

Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.

Goldman: Who among us expected Kucherov to score this much with a 40-goal scorer like Jake Guentzel on his wing?

Gentille: “Me,” I say very dishonestly. He didn’t get any votes, but I feel it necessary to point out that Tage Thompson leads the league with nine five-on-five goals. If Buffalo’s power play gets it together, he should have a shot.

Mirtle: The Auston Matthews skepticism also comes with him on the shelf for a few games, but the concern is warranted. His shooting percentage is down by half, the Leafs power play had a rough start but is getting better, and it feels a bit like the off-year he had in 2022-23 so far.

Norris Trophy

Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.

Granger: Cale Makar is scoring at an 82-game pace of 135 points …

Gentille: Makar has been undeniably sick, but I went with Quinn Hughes here if only to make a point. His work in his own end has been both incredible and a step up from last season, when he won Norris No. 1. His campaign for a repeat deserves to start now.

Mirtle: I picked Makar, but glad to see Brock Faber here. If the Wild make the playoffs, he’s going to be getting votes for this, no question.

Goldman: Hughes is having such an excellent start that he probably should be getting more hype. No shade to Makar, who rightfully leads the way here. It just feels like it should be a bit tighter.

GO DEEPER

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Selke Trophy

Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.

Goldman: Aleksander Barkov is the easy answer here and will probably be a perennial finalist for the rest of his career. But Nico Hischier’s scoring could finally push him to the top of the list this year, since there is so much more emphasis on two-way play in today’s game.

Gentille: That was my logic, too. Barkov missed some time and Hischier is scoring enough (10 goals) to bolster his case.

Mirtle: The 12th (Sidney Crosby) and 13th (Anze Kopitar) oldest skaters are getting reputation votes here, but it’s pretty remarkable that both are still putting up better than a point a game at age 37.

Vezina Trophy

Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.

Granger: Shesterkin is playing on his own planet — perhaps his own universe — at the moment. The 11.97 goals he’s saved above expected this season (even after a rare bad outing on Thursday) rank second in the league. It’s almost unfair when he’s this locked in.

Gentille: I’m Team Shesterkin, too, but shoutout to Jake Oettinger, who’s having the type of regular season (.922 save percentage, fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expected) that plenty of us expected in 2023-24.

Mirtle: Quite a negotiation strategy from Shesterkin right now …

GO DEEPER

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Jack Adams Award

Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.

Goldman: We saw Spencer Carbery do a lot with a little last season. With some roster additions, the Capitals are thriving. He deserves a lot of credit for it. If Washington can stay in the playoff race, he feels like the slam-dunk pick for this award.

Gentille: I’d love to see Carbery stay in the discussion here. Too many Jack Adams candidates are propped up by overachieving goalies, and that hasn’t been the case in D.C. They’re across-the-board good.

Mirtle: Carbery was pegged by a lot of organizations as a rising star after what he did as an assistant in Toronto, and that’s definitely playing out right now. Few saw this kind of a rise from the Capitals, who suddenly look very legit. Great hire by Brian MacLellan.

Granger: The Senators aren’t quite playing well enough for Travis Green to fly up this list, but I like what he’s doing with that young team.

Calder Trophy

Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.

Gentille: As I type this, Matvei Michkov has been healthy-scratched. It was bound to happen at some point, I suppose.

Goldman: The Sharks scored more than expected without Macklin Celebrini, so if they can build on it with him back in the fold (he scored two goals on Thursday), he could emerge as the favorite.

MACKLIN’S GOT ANOTHER ONE ✌️ pic.twitter.com/zX4UW1hZlq

— NHL (@NHL) November 8, 2024

Mirtle: I’m heavily biased here because I’ve watched him with my hometown team for years, but folks are sleeping on Logan Stankoven. His line has been great defensively, and his point-per-game pace isn’t percentage-driven. He’s going to have a great career.

Granger: Stankoven was so good in the playoffs last year and has rolled it right into this season. The guy is everywhere when he’s on the ice, a great forechecker and has plenty of skill with the puck once he gets it.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Bruce Kluckhohn, Andre Ringuette / NHLI; Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)