The College Football Playoff bracket was again flipped on its head in Rivalry Week. So what will the penultimate selection committee rankings look like Tuesday night?
You can’t start a conversation about the rankings without mentioning Ohio State. The Buckeyes, ranked No. 2 last week, lost to rival Michigan for the fourth consecutive year, this time as a three-touchdown favorite. That’s not only going to shake up the top of the Playoff rankings this week, but its ripples will be felt in conference championship weekend, as Penn State is now in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon. So how far will Ohio State fall? Are the Buckeyes in line to host a home game in the first round? Tuesday’s rankings will give us a clearer picture.
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Ohio State wasn’t the only top-10 team to be upset, either. No. 6 Miami blew a 21-0 lead on the road at Syracuse and is now in jeopardy of missing the Playoff, having already cost itself a spot in the ACC title game (sending Clemson to Charlotte instead). The big question will be if Miami (10-2) is ranked ahead of Alabama (9-3), as the at-large bids are filling up and that’s likely where the bubble line will be drawn. It’s never a certainty until the bracket is set, but if the Hurricanes fall behind Alabama, their odds of making the Playoff are slim.
Here’s what my model is predicting the rankings will be Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN):
Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 14
| Rank | Team | Record | Prev. | SOS | AP poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
12-0 |
1 |
63 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
11-1 |
3 |
49 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
11-1 |
4 |
53 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
11-1 |
5 |
48 |
4 |
|
|
5 |
10-2 |
2 |
34 |
7 |
|
|
6 |
10-2 |
7 |
11 |
5 |
|
|
7 |
10-2 |
8 |
60 |
6 |
|
|
8 |
11-1 |
9 |
71 |
8 |
|
|
9 |
11-1 |
10 |
72 |
9 |
|
|
10 |
9-3 |
13 |
19 |
11 |
|
|
11 |
10-2 |
6 |
68 |
14 |
|
|
12 |
9-3 |
14 |
51 |
15 |
|
|
13 |
11-1 |
11 |
93 |
10 |
|
|
14 |
9-3 |
15 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
15 |
10-2 |
16 |
42 |
12 |
|
|
16 |
10-2 |
18 |
46 |
16 |
|
|
17 |
10-2 |
19 |
55 |
17 |
|
|
18 |
9-3 |
21 |
26 |
22 |
|
|
19 |
9-3 |
12 |
70 |
18 |
|
|
20 |
9-3 |
25 |
47 |
20 |
|
|
21 |
9-3 |
23 |
54 |
21 |
|
|
22 |
9-3 |
NR |
67 |
23 |
|
|
23 |
10-2 |
22 |
94 |
19 |
|
|
24 |
10-1 |
NR |
126 |
24 |
|
|
25 |
8-4 |
NR |
21 |
25 |
Next five: Duke, Tulane, Texas A&M, Iowa State, LSU
Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame should all move up after Ohio State’s loss. Similar to last week, I wouldn’t be shocked if the committee puts Notre Dame over Penn State. I wouldn’t agree with it — and neither would my model — but the committee could use the Irish’s 14-point win at USC as justification. Penn State beat USC by three in overtime earlier in the year.
Does Ohio State fall to No. 5? Or will it be behind Georgia? Some are making the argument for the Buckeyes to fall below Tennessee, like they did in the AP poll, but that’s an incorrect one, in my opinion. Ohio State has two better wins in the committee’s eyes against Penn State and Indiana and the tougher schedule. People might not like it, but Ohio State is still in a good position to host a Playoff game despite the loss to Michigan. In fact, I’d be shocked if that wasn’t the case.
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Perhaps the most uncertainty this week involves the ACC title game and the final at-large bid. SMU beating Clemson makes things pretty simple, as the Mustangs would get an automatic bid and first-round bye and Clemson would be out. However, if SMU loses, Clemson is in position to get an automatic bid and SMU would then be pitted against, you guessed it, Alabama for the last remaining spot, if the Tide are indeed ahead of Miami.
I don’t think SMU should be penalized too harshly for a conference championship game loss, but considering how tough Alabama’s schedule is, especially compared to SMU’s, the Crimson Tide are going to be in the conversation. A lot of things will factor into the discussion, of course. If SMU were to lose by multiple scores, I think that likely knocks it out. If it’s a close game, maybe that keeps the Mustangs in. But there’s the also the fact that Alabama has the name recognition and hails from the SEC.
Is that a fair process? Not necessarily. Alabama would again benefit from jumping a team after the conference championship game like last year over Florida State. But the resumes being so close will make this a debate, and if I had to guess, Alabama would get the benefit of the doubt.
As for the rest of the bracket, there is a chance that the Big 12 champion could stay ahead of Clemson, if it wins the ACC title, which would push the Tigers down the seeding list. With the AAC likely out, the winner of the Mountain West will get a spot in the Playoff — and Boise State has a good shot at the No. 3 seed if Clemson prevails in the ACC.
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Brian Bahr, James Gilbert, Joe Robbins / Getty Images)
