The next defense secretary will face myriad major challenges: the war in Ukraine, turmoil in the Middle East and rising military threat from China. And then there’s what lies closer to home: possibly deploying U.S. troops to the southwestern border to address immigration concerns, and revitalizing America’s military industrial base to confront global adversaries.
Ukraine
President-elect Donald J. Trump has said little about how he would settle the conflict. But Vice President-elect JD Vance has outlined a plan that would allow the Russians to keep the Ukrainian territory that their forces have seized.
Keith Kellogg, Mr. Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, said last week that his boss would try to broker a deal with Moscow within 100 days of his inauguration. Critics fear a hasty deal could lock in Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine — about 20 percent of the country.
One of the biggest unknowns for Ukraine is whether the Trump administration and Europe will provide any kind of security guarantees to try to prevent Russia from moving to take more territory.
“A Russian military victory in Ukraine would be somewhat akin to the Biden administration’s catastrophe in Afghanistan in its first year,” said Seth G. Jones, a senior vice president with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
The Middle East
What will happen to the 2,000 U.S. troops helping to fight the Islamic State in northeast Syria?
In late 2018, Mr. Trump ordered all U.S. forces to abandon that mission, prompting Jim Mattis to resign as defense secretary in protest. A subsequent compromise reversed that decision, leaving a smaller U.S. force in a smaller corner of that part of Syria.
The turmoil in Syria after the collapse last month of President Bashar al-Assad’s government to an Islamist coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Islamic State-inspired attack in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, make any immediate troop changes less likely, but the long-term future is uncertain.
Meantime, negotiators for both President Biden and Mr. Trump are working together to strike a deal before Inauguration Day to reach a cease-fire in Gaza that would also release some of the remaining hostages.
If that effort fails, however, the next defense secretary could play a role in trying to influence Israel’s air campaign and ground attacks against remaining Hamas fighters in Gaza.
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, a retired four-star Army general, repeatedly warned Israel that it could face “strategic defeat” that would leave the country less secure if it did not do more to protect civilians.
China
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III visited the Indo-Pacific region 13 times during his four-year tenure. The main reason? China.
Mr. Austin’s successor is also likely to rack up the miles flying to Asia to oversee a growing U.S. military presence in the region and to shore up alliances to counter a rising Chinese military threat.
China’s navy “continues to develop into a global force, gradually extending its operational reach beyond East Asia,” the Defense Department said last month in an annual report assessing Beijing’s military strength.
Much of China’s military planning is focused on Taiwan, a self-governed island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. Leaders in Beijing have long said that they want to peacefully absorb Taiwan into China, but they also say they may resort to war. China has been stepping up naval and air force forays near Taiwan to increase its pressure on the island.
Look for the new Trump administration to build on President Biden’s efforts to expand American security partnerships in the region, making deals that would allow U.S. forces to disperse across small islands and strike China with anti-ship weapons and cruise missiles.
